Becancour Lithium Refinery Definitive Feasibility Study
BÉCANCOUR
LITHIUM REFINERY
DEFINITIVE
FEASIBILITY STUDY
FEBRUARY 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
The Lithium Universe Strategy
•
Positive, robust Bécancour Refinery DFS even in low pricing environment
•
LU7 Board has made Financial Investment Decision (FID) and proceeding to funding
•
LU7 has a counter cyclical strategy – develop project, ready for price recovery
•
Closing the Lithium Conversion Gap – growth in resource and end market projects
The Financial Modelling
•
Economically viable with excellent pre-tax NPV8% of approximately US$718M
•
IRR (pre-tax) of approximately 21.0% and payback of 3.9 years based on;
•
Price forecast of US$1,170/t SC6 and US$20,970/t for battery grade Li2CO3
•
Current spot price is approx. US$775/t SC6 and US$10,680/t for battery grade LC
•
Operating costs at around US$3,931/tonne;
•
Capital cost estimate of US$549 million
•
11% increase from PFS mainly due to Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) system and escalation
•
Expected annual revenue of approx US$383 million and EBITDA of around US$148 million
•
Project break even at around US$740 /t (SC6) and around US$14,000 per tonne LC
The Design
•
LU7 offers a solution to worldwide lithium conversion failures and startup problems
•
Using proven Jiangsu Refinery operating technology and lithium industry experience
•
Producing up to 18,270 tonnes/year of green battery-grade lithium carbonate
•
Smaller off-the-shelf style plant rather than large difficult-to-operate facilities
•
Initial focus on lithium carbonate production – feed for LFP batteries
•
Assumptions based on real operating data and experience – not new aspirant
The Location
•
Québec ideal trans-Atlantic lithium conversion centre, comparable to China
•
Feedstock from Canada, Brazil and Africa – end market North America
•
Critical cost benefits – cheap green power, transport mine/end market savings, US/Canada tariffs
•
95% GHG emission reduction with Hydro Québec’s green energy
Next Steps
•
Offtake discussions with interested OEMs underway
•
LU7 to embark on the funding stage of the project
Lithium Universe Limited ASX:LU7
ABN 22 148 878 782
Suite 9, 295 Rokeby Road
Subiaco WA 6008 Australia
www.lithiumuniverse.com
investorhub.lithiumuniverse.com
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CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
Information Required by Listing Rules
The Bécancour Lithium Refinery Definitive Feasibility Study
(DFS) does not rely upon estimated ore reserves / and or
mineral resources. The spodumene concentrate feedstock
for the proposed refinery has been assumed to have been
purchased directly from spodumene miners currently
producing spodumene concentrates or marketing agents
or traders currently purchasing spodumene concentrate
and selling to the downstream processors. Accordingly,
the JORC Code is not relevant to this study nor are Listing
Rules 5.16 and 5.17 to the extent to which they relate to
matters concerning JORC.
Forward Looking Statements
This release contains “forward-looking information” that
is based on the Company’s expectations, estimates
and projections as of the date on which the statements
were made. This forward-looking information includes,
among other things, statements with respect to studies,
the Company’s business strategy, plan, development,
objectives, performance, outlook, growth, cash flow,
projections, targets and expectations. Generally, this
forward looking information can be identified by the use of
forward-looking terminology such as ‘outlook’, ‘anticipate’,
‘project’, ‘target’, ‘likely’,’ believe’, ’estimate’, ‘expect’,
’intend’, ’may’, ’would’, ’could’, ’should’, ’scheduled’,
’will’, ’plan’, ’forecast’, ’evolve’ and similar expressions.
Persons reading this news release are cautioned that such
statements are only predictions, and that the Company’s
actual future results or performance may be materially
different. Forward-looking information is subject to known
and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that
may cause the Company’s actual results, level of activity,
performance or achievements to be materially different
from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking
information. Forward-looking information is developed
based on assumptions about such risks, uncertainties and
other factors set out herein, including but not limited to
general business, economic, competitive, political and social
uncertainties; the actual results of current development
activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in
project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future
prices of metals; failure of plant, equipment or processes
to operate as anticipated; accident, labour disputes and
other risks of the chemical industry; and delays in obtaining
governmental approvals or financing or in the completion
of development or construction activities. This list is not
exhaustive of the factors that may affect our forward-looking
information. These and other factors should be considered
carefully, and readers should not place undue reliance on
lithiumuniverse.com
such forward-looking information. Neither the Company,
nor any other person, gives any representation, warranty,
assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events
expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement will
actually occur. Except as required by law, and only to the
extent so required, none of the Company, its subsidiaries or
its or their directors, officers, employees, advisors or agents
or any other person shall in any way be liable to any person
or body for any loss, claim, demand, damages, costs or
expenses of whatever nature arising in any way out of, or in
connection with, the information contained in this document.
The Company disclaims any intent or obligations to or revise
any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new
information, estimates, or options, future events or results or
otherwise, unless required to do so by law.
Cautionary Statement
The DFS is based on the material assumptions outlined
including that it has been completed to a Class 3 level
with a nominal level of accuracy of -15% and +20%, that
the financial forecasts rely upon the purchase of third party
spodumene concentrate as the feedstock for the plant. The
DFS referred to in this announcement has been undertaken
to assess the potential technical feasibility and economic
viability of constructing and operating facilities capable of
producing battery grade lithium carbonate for use in lithiumion batteries from those units of operations and provide
baseline financial metrics to consider future investment
decisions.
The Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is based on the
material assumptions outlined below. These include
assumptions about the availability of funding. While Lithium
Universe considers all of the material assumptions to be
based on reasonable grounds, there is no certainty that
they will prove to be correct or that the range of outcomes
indicated by the DFS will be achieved. To achieve the range
of outcomes indicated in the DFS, funding of in the order of
US$550 million will likely be required. Investors should note
that there is no certainty that Lithium Universe will be able
to raise that amount of funding when needed. It is also likely
that such funding may only be available on terms that may be
dilutive to or otherwise affect the value of Lithium Universe’s
existing shares. It is also possible that Lithium Universe
could pursue other ‘value realisation’ strategies such as a
sale, partial sale or joint venture of the project. If it does,
this could materially reduce the Company’s proportionate
ownership of the project. Given the uncertainties involved,
investors should not make any investment decisions based
solely on the results of the DFS.
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CONTENTS
Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 5
Chairman’s Comments .......................................................................................... 5
Counter Cyclical Strategy ..................................................................................... 6
Company’s Outlook On Supply Demand Outlook .............................................. 7
Closing The Lithium Conversion Gap ................................................................. 8
Quebec Trans Atlantic Lithium Conversion Centre ........................................... 9
Margins Of Converters Vs Concentrate .............................................................. 10
Global Lithium Conversion Failures & Challenges ............................................ 11
Jiangsu Uses A Conventional Process From 1950’s ......................................... 12
Use Of Proven Jiangsu Technology .................................................................... 13
Solving The Technology Risk .............................................................................. 14
Proven Expertise ................................................................................................... 15
Initial Focus On Lithium Carbonate Production ................................................. 17
Lithium Market Demand ........................................................................................ 18
Lithium Price Forecast .......................................................................................... 19
Long Term Spodumene And Lithium Carbonate Price Assumptions ............... 20
Bécancour Site Location ....................................................................................... 22
Bécancour Flow Sheet ........................................................................................... 26
Patent Application Process ................................................................................... 26
Plant Layout ............................................................................................................ 29
Process Reagents And By-Product Production .................................................. 32
Metallurgical Testwork ........................................................................................... 34
Canadian Resource Development ........................................................................ 36
Transatlantic Resource Development .................................................................. 37
Offtake Discussions ............................................................................................... 38
Capital Cost Estimate ............................................................................................ 39
Capital Costs Intensity .......................................................................................... 43
Economic Analysis ................................................................................................ 43
Break Even Scenario, Current Lithium Prices ..................................................... 45
Operating Cost Estimate ....................................................................................... 46
Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................... 48
Project Finance ...................................................................................................... 49
Environmental, Sustainability And Governance ................................................. 50
Government And Community Relations .............................................................. 52
Partnership With Local University ....................................................................... 54
Logistics Agreement ............................................................................................. 54
Project Risk Management ..................................................................................... 55
Next Steps .............................................................................................................. 58
Addendum .............................................................................................................. 59
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Lithium Universe Limited (“Lithium Universe” or the “Company,” ASX: “LU7”) is pleased to announce the results of
its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Bécancour Lithium Carbonate Refinery in Québec, Canada. The Company
previously released a Preliminary Feasibility Study in October 2024. The follow-up DFS confirms the viability of a strong
lithium conversion project, even within a below-average pricing environment. The Company plans to build a reliable, lowrisk lithium conversion refinery with an annual capacity of up to 18,270 tonnes, utilizing proven expertise from the Jiangsu
processing model. The facility will produce environmentally friendly, battery-grade lithium carbonate. The Company aims to
establish a Canadian-based lithium chemicals business, purchasing spodumene feedstock from both domestic suppliers and
international markets, including Brazil and Africa and producing a battery grade lithium carbonate product. This aligns with
the Company’s broader vision of contributing to the North Atlantic lithium supply chain and closing the Lithium Conversion
Gap.
The project’s economics continues to be highly favourable, even with conservative price assumptions. The refinery is
economically viable with a pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately US$718 million, using an 8% discount rate,
and a pre-tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of around 21.0%. The full rate payback period is estimated at 3.9 years.
The financial model is built on cautious price forecasts of US$1,170 per tonne for spodumene concentrate (SC6) and
US$20,970 per tonne for battery-grade lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). LU7’s directors believe they have a reasonable
basis for using the assumed price in the study of US$20,970 per tonne for battery grade lithium carbonate. Key operational
assumptions include 86% plant availability and 88% lithium recovery. At full production capacity, the project is expected to
generate approximately US$383 million in annual revenue, with costs totalling around US$236 million, leading to an annual
EBITDA of approximately US$148 million and a gross margin of in the region of 39%. Post-tax, the NPV at an 8% discount
rate is estimated at approximately US$449 million. The capital cost for the project is estimated at US$549 million, which
includes a contingency of US$51 million. The capital cost has risen by 11% compared to the PFS, primarily driven by the
inclusion of a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) system (US$30 million) to enable the recycling and reuse of all process water
on-site. Additional factors, such as escalation and updated pricing quotes, also contributed to this modest increase. The
capital costs estimate is based on advanced design specifications from the Jiangsu Lithium Refinery model, ensuring robust
financial planning and projection. These factors highlight the project’s strong financial viability, even under conservative
pricing conditions.
Chairman’s Comment
Lithium Universe Chairman, Iggy Tan said “The strong NPV and returns for the project indicate an economically viable project
and the Board has made the Financial Investment Decision (FID), and the project is now proceeding to the funding stage.
An equity and debt adviser will be engaged to lead the funding outreach program, aimed at securing strategic partners at the
project level to support project financing. Initial discussions with various banks and debt providers have been encouraging.
The Company will continue discussions with interested OEMs with spodumene offtake supply seeking conversion
outside of China. We are confident that the Bécancour lithium refinery, with an annual capacity of 18,270 tonnes,
will emerge as a leader in producing green, battery-grade lithium carbonate. We recognized that bridging the
lithium conversion gap in North America, leveraging our accumulated lithium expertise and the proven technology
from Jiangsu, is a clear strategy.”
“Our counter-cyclical strategy is centered on advancing projects during market downturns, allowing us to strategically
position ourselves for growth as the market rebounds. We are dedicated to funding and constructing a proven, low-risk
lithium conversion refinery in Québec, marking the first step toward establishing Québec as the lithium conversion hub for
the Transatlantic region.”
WATCH:
Members of the Lithium Universe
and Hatch Engineering team
discuss the Definitive Feasibility
Study (14min)
lithiumuniverse.com
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COUNTER CYCLICAL STRATEGY
Leveraging experience with cyclical movements in the lithium market, Lithium Universe utilizes a counter-cyclical strategy
focused on developing projects during market downturns to strategically position itself as the market recovers. Although the
recent oversupply of lithium has resulted in price declines, the Company remains confident in the strong long-term demand
for lithium, driven by the growing electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors. This ongoing demand underscores
the need for continued investment in lithium mining and refining projects. LU7 believes that the current market conditions
provide an optimal window for project development. With falling and depressed prices, less viable projects and weaker
players have been cleared out of the market, leaving space for more robust and well-prepared companies. By advancing
its Bécancour Lithium Carbonate Refinery during this downturn, LU7 aims to be ready for a price recovery and capitalize on
future growth, ensuring its place in the evolving lithium market.
Over the past four years, lithium prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to the expanding electric vehicle (EV)
market and increased demand for energy storage. From 2020 to early 2022, prices surged as supply struggled to keep pace
with demand driven by the global shift towards cleaner energy. By 2022, lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices had risen
over 400%, influenced by COVID-19-related supply disruptions. As of late 2023, prices have begun to stabilize due to new
mining and refining projects. Although recent oversupply has led to price declines, long-term demand for lithium remains
strong, necessitating continued investment in mining and refining.
COMPANY’S COMMENTARY ON
SUPPLY DEMAND OUTLOOK
The lithium market is currently experiencing a rebalancing phase driven by oversupply and strategic production curtailments
by major producers. In response to recent price declines, several key players have either reduced output or temporarily
halted operations. Companies such as Core Lithium, the Greenbushes JV, Mineral Resources, and Albemarle’s Kemerton
facility have all implemented measures to manage supply. More recently, CATL’s Yichun mine and Arcadium’s Mt Cattlin
operation have also scaled back production. Additionally, the Tianqi Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant has been placed under
care and maintenance, reflecting broader industry trends aimed at stabilizing the market. These strategic adjustments
highlight the industry’s efforts to balance supply with demand dynamics, potentially paving the way for a healthier market
recovery in the future.
The Company believes that in the next 12 to 18 months, the lithium supply-demand balance is poised for significant rebalancing. LU7 believes that lithium prices will correct faster than expected due to supply-side pressures. Historically, the
lithium market tends to over-correct when prices decline, largely due to the dynamics of oversupply and the purchasing
behaviour of the Chinese lithium industry. The prevailing mindset during periods of price reduction is, “Why buy today when
you can buy later at a cheaper price?” This leads to significant cuts in inventory levels, which can drop to unsustainable lows.
However, when prices begin to recover, the opposite behaviour occurs. Anticipating further price increases, Chinese buyers
rush to secure lithium and stockpile inventory. This reaction drives demand beyond the natural market requirements, causing
prices to rise even further. This cycle of price-driven buying perpetuates further price hikes, as companies continue to
purchase more in anticipation of future shortages, fuelling even greater upward momentum in lithium prices.
The Company believes the impact of lithium supply cuts is being significantly underestimated. Analysts project a 17%
reduction this year and a 21% next year in annual reduction in supply, based on announced shutdowns. Additionally, low
lithium prices have delayed or slowed the start of new projects and existing ramp-ups. Anecdotal evidence indicates that
many Chinese lithium conversion plants, built during the boom, are now reducing operations or shutting down entirely due to
a lack of spodumene feedstock. The Company anticipates that this will trigger another supply shortage. There’s also a risk
that companies may cut back too aggressively in response to low prices, further tilting the balance into a dramatic supply
deficit.
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On the demand side, the Company believes that the underlying demand for lithium is being underestimated. Analysts tend
to focus on EV sales growth, sometimes just Europe and USA, as it is readily available data, but often overlook key trends.
Notably, the growth of EVs in China has been underestimated. The penetration rate of EVs in China surged from 6% in 2020
to 40% in just four years, a pace that caught many Western analysts off guard. China’s EV exports have also skyrocketed,
rising from $3 billion in 2020 to $35 billion per annum today.
In addition, the production of electric buses and trucks by Chinese companies is not sufficiently tracked. Most Tier 1 Chinese
cities now run predominantly electric buses, and 85% of taxi fleets in China are EVs. Importantly, an electric bus can use
5 to 6 times more battery capacity than a passenger EV. Another area with significant demand potential is electric trucks.
A projected penetration rate of 0.5 million electric trucks by 2030 would equate to the battery capacity of 5 million EVs, as
electric trucks require roughly 10 times more battery capacity than passenger EVs. This hidden demand is expected to put
additional strain on lithium supply.
A major factor often overlooked in demand forecasts is the rapid expansion of battery energy storage systems (BESS),
which is emerging as a “dark horse” in the market. Two significant changes have reshaped the industry. First, the price
of solar panels has plummeted due to production overcapacity, reaching rock-bottom levels. Second, with the surge in
renewable energy generation, particularly solar power, electricity prices often turn negative during daylight hours due to the
excess supply. This year alone, 600 GW of solar farms were installed, and this number is expected to increase to 800 GW
annually. To make these solar farms economically viable, BESS is essential to store the excess energy generated during the
day and shift it to the night-time peak period. Based on new capacity installations, around 1.6 TWh of BESS will be required
annually to support the growing solar infrastructure. This growing demand for BESS adds another layer of pressure to the
lithium supply, further amplifying the supply-demand imbalance.
The Company believes that as lithium supply continues to diminish and demand from both EVs and BESS accelerates,
the market is on the verge of a severe shortage. This shortage will likely drive prices up even more sharply. With supply
already constrained by shutdowns and delays in new projects, coupled with growing demand across multiple sectors, the
anticipated supply-demand imbalance could materialize sooner than expected. This imbalance may lead to a more dramatic
and intense price correction, as the market struggles to meet the rapidly increasing need for lithium across both the EV and
energy storage sectors.
LU7’s counter-cyclical strategy focuses on developing projects during market downturns, allowing the company to capitalize
when the market rebounds. By advancing projects when others are scaling back due to low prices, LU7 positions itself to
benefit from a tighter supply market and rising prices when demand recovers. This approach helps the company stay ahead
of competitors, secure favourable terms for project development, and ensure readiness to meet future demand when the
market conditions improve.
lithiumuniverse.com
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CLOSING THE LITHIUM CONVERSION GAP
Currently, over 90% of global LFP battery manufacturing is concentrated in China, but North America is rapidly expanding its
capacity. Ford plans to build a $3.5 billion factory in Michigan with an annual capacity of 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2026,
while Tesla is developing a facility in Nevada with a 10 GWh capacity focused on improving charging speed and energy
density. LG Energy Solutions is investing $5.6 billion in Arizona to produce LFPs for energy storage systems and EVs.
By 2028, North America is expected to add nearly 1,000 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity, supporting the production
of 10 to 13 million electric vehicles annually. Key states like Georgia, Kentucky, and Michigan will lead this growth. Canada
is also investing in the sector, with partnerships from Volkswagen, Stellantis, and others, helping to secure its position in the
global automotive market and meet the rising demand for EVs. The Company estimates that 850,000t of LCE per annum
will be required to satisfy demand in North America by 2028.
Spodumene concentrate needs to be converted to battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide to be used in the production
of cathode materials for lithium batteries. Currently, there are no operational converters in North America and the Company
estimates only 100,000t of LCE hard rock converters are slated for development in the region by 2028. It is unsure how many
of them will be successful. The region seeks to decrease dependence on Chinese lithium converters, aligning with both
commercial and national security goals to onshore the lithium battery supply chain in North America.
The Company believes that there is a shift in the Canadian government’s stance concerning the export of critical lithium
spodumene concentrate to other countries, particularly China, for downstream processing of battery-grade lithium carbonate
and lithium hydroxide. In late 2022, the government ordered Sinomine, a Chinese state-owned company, to divest from
Canadian company Power Metals Corp to relinquish its spodumene concentrate off-take contract. The government stated
that the decision was made following a comprehensive “multi-step security review” conducted under the Investment Canada
Act. Canadian lithium developers must now provide a downstream solution.
In 2024, the U.S. is set to significantly increase tariffs on key Chinese exports, aiming to reduce dependency on Chinese
supply chains and enhance domestic production capabilities. Among the targeted materials are lithium carbonate (Li2CO3)
and lithium hydroxide (LiOH), critical inputs for battery production, with tariffs rising to 25%. This marks a significant escalation
from the previous rates, reflecting the focus of the US on securing strategic resources. These measures are part of a broader
effort to address supply chain vulnerabilities and bolster local industries.
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QUÉBEC TRANS ATLANTIC
LITHIUM CONVERSION CENTRE
The Company believes Québec is emerging as an ideal trans-Atlantic hub for lithium conversion, offering a strategic
alternative to China. With feedstock readily available from Canada, Brazil and Africa, Québec is well-positioned to supply
the growing North American market. Its competitive edge lies in access to low-cost, green energy priced at just US$0.04 per
kWh, making the lithium refining process both cost-effective and sustainable.
The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), European Battery Passport, and Canadian critical minerals mandates are expected
to reshape the North American battery market by encouraging domestic production and reducing reliance on Chinese
suppliers. Québec’s close proximity to lithium-rich regions such as James Bay, home to 500Mt of +1% Li2O deposits, and
major spodumene producers in Latin America and Africa, enhances its competitive position in the global market.
The shift towards Canadian domestic production is also driven by the need for compliance with Canadian Security regulations,
which strengthens supply chain security and market competitiveness. Additionally, Québec’s location near major electric
vehicle (EV) and energy storage manufacturers in Canada reduces transportation costs and carbon emissions, making it
a critical player in the lithium supply chain. As North American demand for EVs and energy storage systems continues to
rise, ensuring a reliable domestic lithium supply is essential. Expanding lithium conversion capabilities in Canada not only
enhances supply chain security but also supports regional battery manufacturing, economic growth, and global clean energy
goals, while reducing the environmental impact associated with long-distance material transportation.
Figure 1: Electricity prices in Trans-Atlantic Region
lithiumuniverse.com
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MARGINS OF CONVERTERS VS CONCENTRATE
There is often a misconception on the profit margins received by converters compared to spodumene producers. The
company contends that due to the challenges in establishing successful lithium operations and limited capacity to produce
battery-grade lithium, converters also experience similar margins as miners. A prime example showcasing this is Tianqi
Corp, which owns the Jiangsu Lithium Carbonate plant and procures spodumene from the market. Tianqi’s ownership of
25% in Greenbushes also reports similar margin levels for both their converter and concentrate businesses in 2021 and
2022, as illustrated in the table below. In both years, the reported margins for their chemical business are very similar to
those of their spodumene business. This indicates that the profitability of lithium conversion is just as attractive as minin
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